Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid the desert heat of Jeddah is about to reach a boiling point as the “Derbi Madrileño” travels to Saudi Arabia. This Thursday, January 8, 2026, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid clash in a high-stakes Supercopa de España semi-final. With a spot in the final against either Barcelona or Athletic Club on the line, this isn’t just a mid-season tournament—it’s a battle for capital supremacy. Watch it live on Damitv.pro .
If you’re looking for a definitive Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction, you’ve come to the right place. We’re breaking down the tactics of Xabi Alonso, the resilience of Diego Simeone, and the injury crisis that could define the night.
Current Form: Momentum vs. Grit
Real Madrid: The Alonso Juggernaut
Recent Form (All Competitions): W-W-W-L-W
Xabi Alonso has Real Madrid playing some of the most aesthetic football in Europe. Despite a minor stumble at the end of 2025, Los Blancos started 2026 with a thunderous 5-1 win over Real Betis.2 The standout story was young Gonzalo García, who bagged a hat-trick in the absence of Kylian Mbappé.3 Real currently sits 2nd in LaLiga, breathing down Barcelona’s neck, and they view the Supercopa as the perfect springboard for a trophy-laden year.
Atletico Madrid: The Defensive Specialists
Recent Form (All Competitions): D-W-L-W-W
Diego Simeone’s men are the definition of “tough to kill.” Currently 4th in the league, they enter this clash following a gritty 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad. While they aren’t scoring at the same rate as their rivals, their defensive organization remains elite. Atleti has developed a reputation as Real Madrid’s “Kryptonite” in one-off knockout games, a trend Simeone will be desperate to maintain in Jeddah.
H2H Record: The “Colchonero” Curse?
The recent history between these two is surprisingly tilted toward the red-and-white half of Madrid. In our Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction modeling, the H2H data is the most eye-opening factor.
Last 5 Meetings
| Date | Competition | Result | Trend |
| Sept 27, 2025 | La Liga | Atleti 5-2 Real Madrid | High Scoring |
| March 12, 2025 | Champions League | Atleti 1-0 Real Madrid | Defensive Masterclass |
| March 04, 2025 | Champions League | Real Madrid 2-1 Atleti | Tight Affair |
| Feb 08, 2025 | La Liga | Real Madrid 1-1 Atleti | Late Drama |
| Sept 29, 2024 | La Liga | Atleti 1-1 Real Madrid | Physical Battle |
Key H2H Stats:
- Atletico Dominance: Atleti is unbeaten in their last six league meetings against Real.
- Goal Frequency: 4 out of the last 6 meetings have seen Both Teams to Score (BTTS).
- Extra Time: 3 of their last 5 knockout meetings (Supercopa/Copa) have gone to extra time.
Tactical Analysis: Alonso’s Verticality vs. Cholo’s Wall
This Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction comes down to how Alonso manages his defensive absences.
Real Madrid’s Adaptation: With Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dani Carvajal both sidelined, Fede Valverde has been operating as a makeshift right-back.4 While he offers incredible recovery speed, it leaves a hole in the midfield engine room. Alonso has shifted to a more possession-heavy 4-3-3, relying on Jude Bellingham to make late third-man runs to overwhelm Atleti’s low block.
Simeone’s Counter-Punch: Atletico will likely deploy a 5-3-2, sitting deep to invite Real Madrid forward before launching Julián Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann into the spaces behind the high-line defense. Their primary target will be Real’s makeshift right flank, looking to isolate Valverde in 2v1 situations.
Key Players: The Game Changers
- Vinícius Jr (Real Madrid): In the absence of a fully fit Mbappé, Vini is the undisputed protagonist. His ability to beat three men in a phone booth will be vital against Atleti’s congested defense.
- Julián Alvarez (Atletico Madrid): The “Spider” thrives in high-pressure derbies. His relentless pressing could force mistakes from Real’s young center-back, Raúl Asencio.
- Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid): The engine of the team. He needs to dominate the half-spaces to drag Atleti’s midfielders out of position.
Injury News: The Mbappé Mystery
The biggest question mark for any Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction is the fitness of Kylian Mbappé.
Real Madrid Injury List:
- Kylian Mbappé: Major doubt (Knee). Alonso says “we’ll see,” but he likely starts on the bench.
- Trent Alexander-Arnold: OUT (Thigh).
- Dani Carvajal: OUT (Knee).
- Eder Militão: OUT (Hamstring).
Atletico Madrid Injury List:
- Jose María Giménez: OUT (Hamstring).
- Clément Lenglet: OUT (Knee).
- Jan Oblak: FIT (Returned from a virus).
5 Essential Match Stats
- The Neutral Factor: Real Madrid has won 4 of the last 5 Supercopa matches played in Saudi Arabia.
- Card King: Matches between these two average 6.4 yellow cards per game over the last three seasons.
- Early Birds: Real Madrid has scored in the first 15 minutes in 40% of their matches this season.
- Late Drama: 35% of the goals in this derby since 2023 have been scored after the 80th minute.
- Draw Trend: 4 of the last 7 meetings in all competitions have ended in a draw after 90 minutes.
Final Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction
This is perhaps the hardest derby to call in years. Real Madrid has the momentum from their 5-1 thrashing of Betis, but their defensive line is held together by “duct tape” due to injuries. Atletico, meanwhile, has the psychological edge of their recent 5-2 victory over Los Blancos.
However, Xabi Alonso’s tactical flexibility and the emergence of Gonzalo García give Real a slight edge in offensive variety. Even if Mbappé only plays 20 minutes, the sheer depth of the Real Madrid midfield should eventually tire out Simeone’s block.
Exact Score Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid
Why this scoreline?
- Valverde’s Versatility: Even at RB, Valverde’s energy helps neutralize Nico Williams-style threats (which Atleti mimics through Lino).
- Bellingham’s Big Game Gene: Jude thrives in these high-stakes knockout moments.
- The Bench: Real’s ability to bring on Arda Güler or Brahim Díaz late in the game will be the tie-breaker.
Alternative Predictions:
- Safe Bet: Over 2.5 Goals.
- Value Bet: Both Teams to Score (BTTS) and Real Madrid to advance.
Expert Betting Tips
- Main Pick: Real Madrid to Win (ML) at +115.
- Card Bet: Over 5.5 Total Cards (-110).
- Goalscorer: Vinícius Jr to score anytime (+140).
- Prop Bet: Game to be decided in Extra Time (+550).
FAQ: Match Day Guide
1. What is the predicted scoreline for Atletico vs Real Madrid?
Our expert Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction is a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid, potentially decided late in the game.
2. Who is the favorite to advance to the final?
Real Madrid is the slight favorite (-130 to advance), though the bookmakers expect a very tight contest.
3. Will Kylian Mbappé play in the Supercopa?
He is a major doubt with a knee injury. Xabi Alonso has kept him in the squad, but he is unlikely to play more than 30 minutes.
4. Where can I watch the Madrid Derby?
The game will be available on ESPN+ in the US, Movistar Plus in Spain, and TNT Sports in the UK.
5. What time is kickoff in Jeddah?
The match kicks off at 10:00 PM local time (AST) on Thursday, January 8, 2026.11
6. Why is this match being played in Saudi Arabia?
The RFEF has a long-term agreement to host the four-team Supercopa format in Saudi Arabia to increase global exposure and revenue for Spanish football.
7. Does the Mbappé injury change the odds significantly?
Yes, the odds for a Real Madrid win shifted from -110 to +115 following the news of his knee sprain, making Atleti a much more popular “value” pick.